Sunday, June 22nd, 2008 - Day 0

The anticipation is enormous. As Neil and I leave San Carlos Airport, I accidentally "bust" the SFO "Class Bravo" restricted airspace for the first time in my life. I have flown the departure route maybe 300 times without making this mistake. The tension is obvious. The nerves of the competitor must be steeled against panic. In the competition no one can be allowed to see fear, or even doubt.

NASA actually has a sub-mission to improve aviation safety through technology. NASA has a deal with the FAA. If a pilot screws up, but fills out a form on the NASA web site that confesses to the whole thing and explains why it happened, and what could be done to limit the chances of the same mistake in the future, the FAA will grant immunity (sort of like traffic school). Before the Day 0 practice tournament, once in the hotel room, I find the form on the internet and start filling it out.

I explain about the distraction that caused the airspace incursion. (My headset batteries died, the noise cancellation went away, and I was suddenly hearing lots of noise. I did not figure it out at first, and I thought it was something else, like sudden pressurization loss, a window or door being open, or a major electrical bus failure. On the form, I list the distraction of trying to debug a squawk-free plane as the probable cause of the indiscretion. But was it.

Neil is the first to bust out of the Bellagio daily tournament, which was our practice round. (You get 10,000 chips for 1,000 bucks.) Chuck is seen standing up with a disgusted expression under his beard next. They are not happy with their plays. I am playing perfectly, but am somewhat behind because of some minor bad beats. I have lost a couple of "races" but am still alive because I have only been going up against those with fewer chips than me. Also, I have been getting no cards, and have had to steal pots with too many bluffs just to try to get back in the game, as the blinds and antes have risen several times, 4 hours into the tournament.

Finally, pocket Queens. A decent hand.

I raise 3 times the big blind, trying to get a caller. Desperate to score big to get back into the hunt, and near the average stack size, I am hoping for two callers, but everyone is folding. The man on the button goes all in, for 6,000 chips. Now is my chance to get back into this thing. The guy on my right is the big blind and last to act after the middle blind folds. He is laying on the table, apparently agonizing over his cards, and his decision. I only have 6,000 or so left myself, so if I could get two callers and triple up, although it is more dangerous, this would give me the average stack size, and I could start playing normal, patient poker again. I pray he calls as well. Time passes. Too much time. I am about to call a clock on this clown. Why isn't someone else calling for a clock. Why are they being so nice to this fool? Then he sits up straight, and reveals that he has no cards, since he threw them away a long time ago (and I did not even notice). They have been waiting for me.

I apologize to everyone at the table, profusely, for blowing two minutes of their time. I call the all-in of course, and still apologizing turn over my pair of Queens. The all-in shows pocket nines. I am way ahead. He has a "two outer" ... pretty much only another 9 can save him. There are just going to be 5 cards put into the "community board" in the middle, and there are lots of cards in the deck for those two 9s to get lost among.

I announce that my poker etiquette breach was so bad that I now must be punished, and I order the dealer to put a 9 in the flop, jinxing myself. He does. The jinx works completely as no Queen comes on the turn or river, so I am crippled, and bust out on the next hand as I must go all in as the big blind with my remaining few chips. I leave the table apologizing again, and explaining that justice has been done.

What were the actual odds? Before I run the poker simulator on my laptop, I review in my mind the logic that even if a player always gets into the pot with the best of it, if he has to do that once an hour, he is going to lose some of those. If he has to be up against people that have his stack size or bigger, this is going to happen. In the big tournament tomorrow, I vow to try for an early lead, with aggressive play opportunistically, so other people have to fear going up against me.

Here are the odds for a before the flop suck out, pair over pair:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

61,642,944 games 0.032 secs 1,926,342,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.190% 80.99% 00.20% 49925880 122184.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 18.810% 18.61% 00.20% 11472696 122184.00 { 99 }


His two-outer would hit 18.8 percent of the time. Was it a bad beat, or did Neil's "Poker Gods" punish me for all of my rule violations of the day? (Neil is an aetheist, but does believe in one or more poker deities.) I knew I was dirty. I needed to be cleansed.

But tomorrow, on Day 1, I must not think this way. I must not BE this way. I must be entitled. The perfect guest at the perfect party. The best manners. The 4.0 grades, and my choice of colleges. My choice of hands to play. I will break no rules, naturally, because of who I am.

The anticipation is still very high, but now with some road experience, I am no longer nervous, and I am ready to prepare the team at the breakfast of Day 1.